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INF2D: 22: Probabilities and Bayes' Rule

This folder provides a basic introduction to probabilistic inference.  It consists of

  • three videos of short lectures.  They cover:
    1. Joint Probability Distributions
    2. Independence and Bayes' Rule
    3. Combining Evidence
  • Some required reading from Russell and Norvig
  • A quiz that tests your understanding of the material presented here.

Please watch the videos or attend the in-persion lecture, do the required reading, and attempt the quiz.  If there is anything you don't understand, then please ask your question at the lecture or post it on piazza.

Lecture 22 Slides: Whole

22.pdf

22a: Joint Probability Distributions

22a slides: 22a.pdf
22a video:

22b: Independence and Bayes' Rule

22b slides: 22b.pdf 
22b video:

 

22c: Combining Evidence

22c slides: 22c.pdf 
22c video:

 

Required Reading

R&N Section 13.3–13.5  or NIE Chapter (13) "Quantifying Uncertainty", Sections 3–5.

NOTE: The abbreviation R&N refers to:

“Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach” Third Edition, Russell R & Norvig P, Prentice Hall, 2010 (R&N).

The abbreviation NIE stands for the following edition of the same book:

“Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach” Third Edition, Pearson New International Edition, Russell R & Norvig P, Pearson, 2014.

Quiz 22: Probabilities and Bayes' Rule

These questions are designed to test your understanding of the above course content; doing this quiz does not contribute to your overall grade.  Some questions require a text answer.  You can ask for formative feedback on these from your tutor or on piazza.  Other questions are multiple choice or they require a numeric answer: you will get immediate feedback for these. Please don't attempt this quiz until you have acquainted yourself with this lecture and the required reading.

You must be logged onto Learn to do this quiz.

License
All rights reserved The University of Edinburgh

Book traversal links for INF2D: 22: Probabilities and Bayes' Rule

  • INF2D: Week 8: Probabilistic Inference
  • Up
  • INF2D: 23: Introduction to Bayesian Networks

Navigation links

  • INF2D: Course Overview
  • INF2D: Course Materials
    • INF2D: Week 1 - Introduction. Intelligent Agents. Search Problems
    • INF2D: Week 2: Informed Search and Using Constraints, Adversarial Search
    • INF2D: Week 3: Revision, CW1 and Logical Agents
    • INF2D: Week 4: Propositional Inference, First-Order Logic, Unification
    • INF2D: Week 5: Resolution, Situation Calculus, Revision
    • INF2D: Week 6: Symbolic Planning
    • INF2D: Week 7: From Symbolic Planning to Uncertainty and Rationality
    • INF2D: Week 8: Probabilistic Inference
      • INF2D: 22: Probabilities and Bayes' Rule
      • INF2D: 23: Introduction to Bayesian Networks
      • INF2D: 24: Exact Inference in Bayesian Networks
    • INF2D: Week 9: Approximate Inference Methods, and Time
    • INF2D: Week 10: Rational Decision Making
  • INF2D: Tutorial Exercises
  • Inf2D Labs
  • INF2D: Resource List
  • INF2D: Assessment
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