DMP 7.4: Conditional Probability and Independence

Reading

Read Section 1.4, pages 29–36, and Section 1.5, pages 43–46.

The main notions are:

  • Conditional probability
  • The multiplication rule
  • The law of total probability
  • Bayes' Theorem
  • Independence.

Incidentally, the reverend Thomas Bayes was a statistician, philosopher, and minister who came to Edinburgh to study logic and theology in 1719. Bayes' theorem is the basis for all of statistics and machine learning. The Bayes Centre, next to the Informatics Forum, is named after him.

Video

To get a feel for conditional probabilities, the multiplication rule, and the law of total probability, the following video walks through Exercise 55.

Media Hopper link: C&D Section 1.4.4 Exercise 55 on page 38

Exercises

For practice, you can try your hand at the following: C&D Section 1.4.4 Exercises 50, 54, 61, 63, 64, 71, and 75 on pages 37–42, followed by Section 1.4.5 Exercises 82, 91, and 99 on pages 47–50. (Again, try ones from each section until they become routine.)

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