INF2D: 20: Uncertainty, Rationality and Probability
We now start a new, and final, part of the course. From now on, we will be studying how one can use probabilistic inference combined with quantified metrics for representing preferences (the bigger the number, the more the agent wants it), to model agents that make rational decisions. This section introduces some basic concepts, which we will then study in much more detail for the remainder of the course. It consists of:
- three videos of short lectures. They cover:
- Quantifying Uncertainty
- Rational Decisions
- Probabilites: Notations and Axioms
- Some required reading from Russell and Norvig
- A quiz that tests your understanding of the material presented here.
Please watch the videos or attend the in-persion lecture, do the required reading, and attempt the quiz. If there is anything you don't understand, then please ask your question at the lecture or post it on piazza.
Lecture 20 Slides:
Required Reading
R&N Section 13.1–13.2 or NIE Chapter (13) "Quantifying Uncertainty", Sections 1–2.
NOTE: The abbreviation R&N refers to:
“Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach” Third Edition, Russell R & Norvig P, Prentice Hall, 2010 (R&N).
The abbreviation NIE stands for the following edition of the same book:
“Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach” Third Edition, Pearson New International Edition, Russell R & Norvig P, Pearson, 2014.
Quiz 20: Acting under Uncertainty
These questions are designed to test your understanding of the above course content; doing this quiz does not contribute to your overall grade. Some questions require a text answer. You can ask for formative feedback on these from your tutor or on piazza. Other questions are multiple choice or they require a numeric answer: you will get immediate feedback for these. Please don't attempt this quiz until you have acquainted yourself with this lecture and the required reading.
You must be logged onto Learn to do this quiz.
Videos recorded by Prof. Alex Lascarides
20a: Quantifying Uncertainty
20a slides: 20a.pdf
20a video:
20b: Rational Decisions
20b slides: 20b.pdf
NOTE: The above slides match those in the pre-recorded lecture below, which was recorded in 2021. They include the results of the experiments I did on the 2021 cohort of Inf2D students. I also did that experiment on you! Your results are: 79% chose lottery A over lottery B, and 64% chose lottery D over lottery C.
20b video:
20c: Probability: Notation and Axioms
20c slides: 20c.pdf
20c video: